Phil Hellmuth busts out from the Main Event with Pocket Aces

First, Phil Hellmuth is a great tournament poker player. The fact is that he has cashed more than any other player at the WSOP and he has won the Main Event. You may not like his antics, but he has created himself into a brand as the Poker Brat. It works for him perfectly.

Second, it is easy to second guess players centered on outcomes as opposed to the decision itself. I think we need to evaluate the decision that was made and never the outcome.

Third, I only know what happened based on what I've continue reading. If you know additional specifics, please let me know.

Finally, the key in reviewing his play just isn't to criticize but to see if you're able to learn from his play.

A Few Hands Prior to the Pocket Aces

Abraham Mourshaki raises to 20, 000 and Phil re-raises to 36, 000. His opponent calls. Phil can re-raise with a range of hands, but it appears like a min re-raise. A min re-raise usually signals pocket Aces. Phil knows he will be called.

Note: I do not know the levels, but it looks around 2000-4000 blinds.

The flop is Jh-Jc-3d.

Phil bets 40, 000 and his opponent calls.

The turn may be the 7s. Both players check. This is a great play by Phil. If you are beat, you do not want to reduce more chips. What if you get check-raised? Why give yourself a tough decision?

The river is a 5h. Mourshaki bets 120, 000. Hellmuth calls. His opponent has As-Jd.

«I'm gonna vomit on the ground, » Phil said. «You had to locate jack-jack for him. You couldn't find just one jack so he could sail off? Phil's speech means he had pocket AA, KK or QQ, or he is just bs'ing.

Phil is down to 100, 000.

Pocket Aces and He Is Out

A few hands go by and Mourshaki raises to 22, 000 preflop. Hellmuth calls with pocket Aces.

Is that a good play?

My estimation is that Phil made the right play since he was so low on chips when compared with average chip level and the leaders at the time. He wants to simply take the risk that he will be heads-up again and be able to double-up plus. He is playing to win. I don't believe Phil is targeting his opponent because he beat him a couple of hands earlier.

Unlike the last hand, though, three players call the raise. This is a problem. My estimate is that you lose about 8% per player with regards to the probability of winning the hand with AA. With 4 callers, I do believe my Aces will hold up only about 2 out of 3 times. (I'm sure there exists a more accurate formula but this is what I personally use when I have AA and get callers. )

The flop is Jc-10d-5c.

One early player moves all in for 83000. Hellmuth moves all-in for his last 110, 000 (I guess he won a hand since his previous loss. ) And another caller, also calls the all-ins.

Now, before we reveal the hands, I want to make one point here. This flop is dangerous as it is so coordinated with straight and flush draws, especially with cards 10 and over. I cannot stress enough that a coordinated board with two cards 10 and higher are action flops--and a potential problem against many callers (like here).

Phil knows that as well. Even if he is facing two pair, he has a backdoor nut flush, could make a better two pair, and may even be ahead on the flop.

Hellmuth: Ac-As

Early player all-in 9h-8h (a straight draw all-in move)

Late player caller Jh-10c (calls with two pair)

The 7 hit on the turn and the early player gets his straight. Hellmuth is out.

What do you think?

Do you agree or disagree with Hellmuth's play?

Do you agree or disagree with my comments?
Any such thing to add on the probabilities of the hand match-ups?

Thanks for your input!

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